How CMHC rental market data guides leasing and pricing in Canadian cities

What to take away

Going from 1 per cent to 2 per cent vacancy rarely changes tenant behaviour. Going from 2 per cent to 4 per cent usually does, because renters suddenly have somewhere else to go and concessions start appearing.

What the Rental Market Survey counts

CMHC surveys privately initiated purpose-built rental apartments each October, with a smaller spring round in selected centres. Two numbers carry most of the weight: the vacancy rate and the average rent for occupied units, split by bedroom type.

CMHC publishes a fixed sample and a total sample. The fixed sample tracks the same buildings year over year, which makes it the better series for spotting a trend. The total sample folds in new completions and gives the fuller market picture.

That distinction decides how you read a five-year comparison. New supply entering the sample changes the mix, and a rising average rent can sit on top of falling rents in older buildings.

Start with the 2025 Rental Market Report | CMHC for your centre.

What sits outside the number

Rented condominiums, single detached houses, secondary suites and accessory dwelling units form the secondary rental market, and none of them appear in the headline figures.

In Toronto and Vancouver, condos are a large share of the rental stock. A manager benchmarking a condo against the purpose-built average is comparing two markets with different tenants, lease terms and turnover.

The survey also excludes units that are vacant but not available, units rented to employees, and units held off market. Twenty units offline for renovation will not show up in the vacancy rate.

Small markets and thin samples

CMHC surveys centres above 10,000 people, and reporting thins out fast beyond the largest metros. In smaller Ontario and Atlantic centres, the sample may cover only a few dozen buildings.

One new building can move the vacancy rate a full point. Treat the figure as directional and lean on your own rent roll for the local read.

Reading vacancy and rent by metro

The national average is a headline. The metro number is a decision. Canadian rental markets are often described as balanced near 3 per cent vacancy, and the behaviour changes faster around that line than the line itself suggests.

Average rent by bedroom type shows where demand sits. A metro with strong two-bedroom rent growth and flat bachelor rents is a market of families and roommates, not students.

Pull the tables for your centre from Rental Market Data | CMHC rather than a news summary. The Excel files let you build a five-year series for one metro.

On that data tables page, pick the workbook for your centre and survey year. Each workbook carries separate tables for vacancy rates, average rents by bedroom type and the universe of units. Use the October file for the annual series.

Comparing metros honestly

Alberta markets swing hard. Calgary and Edmonton vacancy moves with oil, migration and completions, and can shift several points in two years. Ontario and British Columbia markets are tighter and slower to move.

Quebec is its own case. Montreal rents sit well below Toronto and Vancouver, and the Tribunal administratif du logement sets increases under the Civil Code of Québec.

Atlantic Canada tightened as interprovincial migration rose. Halifax, Moncton and St. John's behave differently enough that they need separate reads. If you are weighing where to deploy capital, the markets worth entering analysis covers how to score them.

Watch the universe, not just the rate

A metro can post a low vacancy rate while adding thousands of units. Both are true at once, and the second decides your 2028.

Track the universe of purpose-built units beside the vacancy rate. If the universe grew 4 per cent and vacancy held flat, demand absorbed the supply. If vacancy rose while the universe grew, the market is softening.

Setting rents and screening acquisitions

Start with the market average rent for your bedroom type and building age, then adjust for what the survey cannot see: position within the metro, condition, parking, laundry and in-suite finishes.

A building two blocks from a subway station commands more than the metro average. A 1960s walk-up with shared laundry commands less. The CMHC figure is the anchor, not the price.

That last step is where most managers go wrong. A single number invites an argument. A range with evidence behind it survives a tenant conversation and a Landlord and Tenant Board hearing.

Acquisition screening

CMHC data does three jobs on a deal. It tells you whether going-in rents sit below market, whether the market can absorb the unit count, and how much rent growth the pro forma assumes.

A pro forma projecting 6 per cent annual rent growth in a metro with 4 per cent vacancy and a 2.5 per cent provincial guideline is a red flag. The building may be fine. The assumptions are not.

Underwrite to the lower of the CMHC average rent and your own comparable set. If the deal still works, the downside is covered. Managers running a portfolio across provinces should track these inputs monthly, not annually, and the KPIs owners actually use piece sets out which ones earn a spot on the report.

The provincial rules you cannot price around

Ontario's Residential Tenancies Act, 2006 caps annual increases for most units, and the Landlord and Tenant Board adjudicates disputes. British Columbia's Residential Tenancy Act and the Residential Tenancy Branch do the same job on the west coast.

Alberta has no annual guideline for most units, but its Residential Tenancies Act governs notice periods and the Residential Tenancy Dispute Resolution Service handles conflicts. Quebec's Tribunal administratif du logement fixes increases under the Civil Code.

Whether a specific increase is lawful in your province is a question for a licensed paralegal or lawyer.

Forecasting turnover with the Housing Market Outlook

Turnover forecasting starts with a baseline: how many units turn over in a normal year in your building. Two to three in ten is common in a stable purpose-built building. Student and short-tenure markets run higher.

The CMHC Housing Market Outlook adds the forward view, projecting rental demand, starts, completions and vacancy. That lets you see the years when your building will face new competition rather than discovering them in a vacancy report.

If the Outlook shows heavy completions in your metro next year, plan for longer vacancy periods and a bigger marketing budget. If completions are slowing, retention becomes the cheaper lever.

The Housing Market Outlook 2026 | CMHC publishes rental market forecasts alongside the national view, so a leasing plan can be built against it instead of after it.

Building the forecast

A forecast that never gets revised is a wish. The value sits in the gap between what you predicted and what happened.

Retention versus re-leasing

Re-leasing costs more than retention in every Canadian market. A turnover means cleaning, painting, advertising, screening and a vacancy period, and the vacancy period is usually the largest line.

When the Outlook points to rising vacancy, spend on retention first: renew early, offer a modest incentive, clear the maintenance backlog. When vacancy is tight and completions are low, hold the line on rent and let the market do the work.

For a wider view of where demand is heading, the how to start property management review covers the forces showing up across Canadian metros.

National Housing Strategy and the supply side

The National Housing Strategy commits federal money to rental construction, affordability and repair over a ten-year horizon, and it shapes the supply side of every market you operate in.

It funds new rental units through programmes including the Rental Construction Financing Initiative and the Apartment Construction Loan Program, plus the Canada Housing Benefit for renters.

For a property manager, the practical effect is completions. Units funded today arrive in two to four years, in the metros where CMHC data already shows the tightest conditions.

The Canada's National Housing Strategy | CMHC page sets out the programmes and their targets.

What it means for existing landlords

New supply competes with your building, but not always directly. Deeply affordable and rent-geared-to-income units serve a different tenant pool than a market-rate two-bedroom.

The overlap grows at the margins. A new building with a mix of market and affordable units can pull tenants who would otherwise rent from you.

Watch funding announcements in your metro. A 200-unit project two kilometres away is a leasing fact, not an abstract policy item.

Statistics Canada as a cross-check

CMHC is not the only source. Statistics Canada publishes housing indicators including rent and vacancy data through the Census and the Canadian Housing Statistics Program.

The Housing statistics hub carries those releases. Use it to sanity-check a CMHC figure that looks out of step with what you see in your own buildings.

The two sources use different methods and reference periods. When they disagree, trust your rent roll first, then work out which published series matches your building type.

Turning CMHC figures into leasing decisions

Data pays for itself only when it changes a decision. Run this list each quarter.

That last item is an acquisition and renovation signal as much as a leasing one. A building priced well below market is either an opportunity or a management problem, and the CMHC data tells you which.

A worked example

A 60-unit purpose-built building in a mid-sized Ontario city. Metro vacancy for two-bedroom units is 2.4 per cent. Average two-bedroom rent is $1,450. The provincial guideline is 2.5 per cent.

The building's achieved two-bedroom rent is $1,320, about 9 per cent below market. Turnover is running at 25 per cent, higher than the manager expected.

The Outlook shows completions slowing over the next two years. That supports an increase to the guideline on renewals and a market-rate ask on new leases.

The turnover number points elsewhere. A 25 per cent rate in a tight market usually means a retention problem, not a pricing one. The fix is response times and renewal conversations, not a discount.

Run the same exercise for each building. The ones where CMHC data and your own numbers disagree are the ones worth a site visit.

Where this fits in portfolio planning

CMHC data answers a narrow set of questions well: what the market rent is, how tight the market is, and where supply is heading. It does not tell you what to buy or which province to enter.

Three CMHC numbers belong in a portfolio review: the five-year vacancy trend, average rent growth by bedroom type, and the change in the universe of purpose-built units. Together they show whether a metro is absorbing new supply or starting to soften.

Those decisions need the provincial rulebook, the tax treatment, and a view on local demand. The scoring protocol for choosing a territory covers how to weigh them together.

Owners planning beyond the current year should also work through expansion planning before committing capital to a new metro.

Set the entry test before you shop: a five-year vacancy trend that is flat or falling, rent growth at or above the provincial guideline, and a universe of units growing no faster than demand.

A metro that fails one test can still work, but the reason has to come from the building, not the metro average.

Common questions

How often does CMHC publish the Rental Market Survey?

The main survey runs each October, with results published in the following months for major centres. A smaller spring survey covers selected centres.

Does CMHC rent data include condos rented by individual owners?

No. The headline survey covers purpose-built rental apartments in structures with at least three units. Rented condos sit in the secondary market and are tracked separately.

Can I raise rent to the CMHC average rent?

The average is a market benchmark, not a legal entitlement. Provincial rules cap increases for most units in Ontario, British Columbia and Quebec, so the guideline or tribunal decision sets the ceiling. Confirm your position with a licensed paralegal or lawyer.

What is the best turnover forecasting method for a small portfolio?

Start with a three-year average of actual move-outs, then adjust for expected completions in your metro from the Housing Market Outlook. Revise quarterly against what actually happened.